PQ minority (54 counties) with liberal opposition (40), CAQ(30), QS(1)

PRELIMINARY RESULTS FORECASTS BY COUNTIES FOR ELECTIONS 2012 QUEBEC

Nothing scientific!

For predicting election results is not enough to translate the overall results for the entire province but, transpose the voting intentions of variations county by county.

Of course, Counties, Members who have changed and can not rely on the accurate results for each county but can see the overall results suggest that rough beginnings of a PQ minority government with about 54 counties and a liberal opposition about 40 counties and the CAQ (former ADQ) is increased to a 30 counties. QS stable 1 deputy.

METHODOLOGY:

I only implemented the difference of the results of recent elections and the latest poll.
– 12 Point to the Liberals (42 to 30% of intention of votes)
– 3 point PQ 35 to 32 %)
+ 9 points to the CAQ (former ADQ) (16 to 25 %)
+ 1 point to QS (4 to 5 %)
+ 0 Point to Green Party (table 2 %) and ON (but not verifiable results in the polls too insignificant to be significant).

And this, for each county.

The text should have to do a percentage:

Liberals – 29 %, PQ – 9%, CAQ + 56 %, QS + 25 %, and PV + 0% of ballots cast in the last elections but the results were not significantly different (but I would have taken longer to calculate!)

The idea was to give an overview of the results as of today:

Quebec 2008 Quebec 2012
County:Elected in 2008

and party

PQ PLQ CAQ QS PV ON

Abitibi-East: Pierre Corbeil (Liberal) 1
Abitibi-Ouest: Francois Gendron (PQ) 1
Acadia: Christine St-Pierre (Liberal) 1
Anjou: Lise Thériault (Liberal) 1
Argenteuil: David Whissell (Liberal) 1
Arthabaska: Claude Bachand (Liberal) 1
Beauce-Nord: January Grondin (Democratic Action) 1
Beauce-Sud: Robert Dutil (Liberal) 1
Beauharnois: Guy Leclair (PQ) 1
Bellechasse: Dominique Vien (Liberal) 1
Berthier: Andre Villeneuve (PQ) 1
Bertrand: Claude Cousineau (PQ) 1
Blainville: Daniel Ratthé (PQ) 1
Bonaventure: Nathalie Normandeau (Liberal) 1
Borduas: Pierre Curzi (PQ) 1
Bourassa-Sauvé: Line Beauchamp (Liberal) 1
Bourget : Diane Lemieux (PQ) 1
Brome-Missisquoi: Pierre Paradis (Liberal) 1
Chambly : Bertrand St-Arnaud (PQ) 1
Champlain : Noella Champagne (PQ) 1
Chapleau : Marc Carrière (Liberal) 1
Charlesbourg : Michel Pigeon (Liberal) 1
Charlevoix : Pauline Marois (PQ) 1
Châteauguay : Pierre Moreau (Liberal) 1
Chauveau : Gerard Deltell (Democratic Action) 1
Chicoutimi : Stéphane Bédard (PQ) 1
Chomedey : Guy Ouellette (Liberal) 1
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière : Marc Picard (Democratic Action) 1
Crémazie : Lisette Lapointe (PQ) 1
D’Arcy-McGee : Lawrence S. Bergman (Liberal) 1
Two Mountains : Benoît Charette (PQ) 1
Drummond : Yves-François Blanchet (PQ) 1
Dubuc : Serge Simard (Liberal) 1
Duplessis : Lorraine Richard (PQ) 1
Fabre : Michelle Courchesne (Liberal) 1
Frontenac : Laurent Lessard (Liberal) 1
Gaspé : George Mamelonet (Liberal) 1
Gatineau: Stephanie Valley (Liberal Party) 1
Gouin : Nicolas Girard (PQ) 1
Groulx : René Gauvreau (PQ) 1
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve : Carole Poirier (PQ) 1
Hull : Maryse Gaudreault (Liberal) 1
Huntingdon: Stephane Billette (Liberal) 1
Iberville: Marie Bouille (PQ) 1
Iles-de-la-Madeleine: Germain Chevarie (Liberal) 1
Jacques-Cartier: Geoffrey Kelley (Liberal) 1
Jean Lesage: André Drolet (Liberal) 1
Jeanne-Mance-Viger: Philomena Rotiroti (Liberal) 1
Jean-Talon: Yves Bolduc (Liberal Party of Quebec) 1
Johnson: Etienne-Alexis Boucher (PQ) 1
Joliette: Véronique Hivon (PQ) 1
Jonquière: Sylvain Gaudreault (PQ) 1
Kamouraska-Témiscouata: Claude Bechard (Liberal) 1
Labelle: Sylvain Pagé (PQ) 1
Lac-Saint-Jean: Alexandre Cloutier (PQ) 1
LaFontaine: Tony Tomassi (Liberal Party of Quebec) 1
The Peltrie: Éric Caire (Democratic Action) 1
The Pinière: Fatima Houda-Pépin (Liberal) 1
Laporte: Nicole Ménard (Liberal) 1
The Prairie: François Rebello (PQ) 1
The Assumption: Scott McKay (PQ) 1
Laurier-Dorion: Gerry Sklavounos (Liberal) 1
Laval-des-Rapides: Alain Paquet (Liberal) 1
Laviolette: Julie Boulet (Liberal) 1
Levis: Gilles Lehouillier (Liberal) 1
Lotbinière: Sylvie Roy (Democratic Action) 1
Louis-Hébert: Sam Hamad (Liberal) 1
Marguerite-Bourgeoys: Monique Jérôme-Forget (Liberal) 1
Marguerite-D’Youville: Monique Richard (PQ) 1
Marie-Victorin: Bernard Drain Ville (PQ) 1
Marquette: François Ouimet (Liberal) 1
Muskellunge: Jean-Paul Diamond (Liberal) 1
Masson: Guillaume Tremblay (PQ) 1
Matane: Pascal Bérubé (PQ) 1
Matapédia Danielle Doyer (PQ) 1
Megantic-Compton: Johanne Gonthier (Liberal) 1
Haberdasher: Amir Khadir (QS) 1
Thousand Islands: Francine Charbonneau (Liberal) 1
Mirabel: Denise Beaudoin (PQ) 1
Montmagny-L’Islet: Norbert Morin (Liberal) 1
Montmorency: Raymond Bernier (Liberal) 1
Mont-Royal: Pierre Arcand (Liberal) 1
Nelligan: Yolande James (Liberal) 1
Nicolet-Yamaska: Jean-Martin Aussant (PQ) 1
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: Kathleen Weil (Liberal) 1
Orford Pierre Reid (Liberal) 1
Outremont: Raymond Bachand (Liberal) 1
Papineau: Norman MacMillan (Liberal) 1
Pointe-aux-Trembles: Nicole Léger (PQ) 1
Pontiac: The Coastguard (Liberal) 1
Portneuf: Michel Matte (Liberal) 1
Prevost: Gilles Robert (PQ) 1
René-Lévesque: Marjolain Dufour (PQ) 1
Richelieu: Sylvain Simard (PQ) 1
Richmond: Yvon Vallieres (Liberal) 1
Rimouski: Irvin Pelletier (PQ) 1
Riviere-du-Loup: Mario Dumont (Democratic Action) 1
Robert-Baldwin: Pierre Marsan (Liberal) 1
Roberval: Denis Trottier (PQ) 1
Rosemont: Louise Beaudoin (PQ) 1
Rousseau: François Legault (PQ) 1
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue: Daniel Bernard (Liberal) 1
St. Francis: Monique Gagnon-Tremblay (Liberal) 1
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne: Marguerite Blais (Liberal) 1
Saint-Hyacinthe: Emilien Pelletier (PQ) 1
Saint-Jean: Dave Turcotte (PQ) 1
Saint-Laurent: Jacques P. Dupuis (Liberal) 1
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques: Martin Lemay (PQ) 1
Saint-Maurice: Claude Pinard (PQ) 1
Shefford: François Bonnardel (Democratic Action) 1
Sherbrooke: Jean Charest (Liberal) 1
Soulanges: Lucie Charlebois (Liberal) 1
Taillon: Marie Malavoy (PQ) 1
Taschereau: Agnès Maltais (PQ) 1
Terrebonne: Mathieu Traversy (PQ) 1
Trois-Rivières: Danielle St-Amand (Liberal) 1
Ungava: Luc Ferland (PQ) 1
Vachon: Camil Bouchard (PQ) 1
Vanier: Patrick Huot (Liberal) 1
Vaudreuil: Yvon Marcoux (Liberal) 1
Verchères: Stéphane Bergeron (PQ) 1
Verdun: Henri-François Gautrin (Liberal) 1
Viau: Emmanuel Dubourg (Liberal) 1
Vimont: Vincent Auclair (Liberal) 1
Westmount—Saint-Louis: Jacques Chagnon (Liberal) 1
54 40 30 1 0 0
PLQ becoming PQ 12
PLQ becoming CAQ 15
PQ becoming PLQ 1
PQ becoming CAQ 6

 

Yves Marineau

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