DECLINE OF CRIME 20% SINCE INCEPTION OF CPE.

Critical Research ” Universal Childcare, Maternal Labor Supply, and Family Well-Being” de Michael Baker, Jonathan Gruber, Kevin Milligan

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Study that seems to conclude that the CPE¹ could lead to negative behaviors, such hyperactivity, anxiety, aggressiveness, etc.

Not only the data is very incomplete; only 2 cohortes pré-CPE versus 3 cohortes post-CPE, therefore partial results that could be reversed by the same exercise with subsequent cohorts.

And more, the differences appear to be based on differences of data so thin that is not certain that they are truly representative, if have take into account the margin of error.

And, The most important point, it is not certain that we have compared equivalent cohorts that reflect the demographic weight of growing young ethnic backgrounds who alone could explain variations in data.

I wrote to one of the authors to confirm my fears.

I asked him if we had compared only Canada and Quebec, or, if we had also compared cohorts of Quebec before and after the creation of the CPE?

And if yes, if we had compared cohorts of the same ethnicity, or, in the same proportions?

I'm waiting for the answer. I suppose a serious methodological error of compared children from different ethnic backgrounds, since there are fewer and fewer children from Quebec and more and more immigrants if children of children of immigrant parents.

What seems to vary the results in the same proportion as the changes in the children of immigrant rate.

Besides the variations seem well within the margin of error.

This means that the study would be unrepresentative otherwise worthless if it did not compare children of the same medium.

Besides the statistics seem to prove the opposite research report assertions.

The crime rate, from the younger generation who went through the CPE, declined 20%!

"Almost all provinces have seen their crime rates reported by police and IGC back in 2012. (…) Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador recorded the largest declines in theIGC², a decrease of 5 % each "³

Among major Canadian cities, Quebec City has the lowest IGC!⁴

"Robbery, one of the most severe and most frequent violent crime, also declined in 2012 to stand at its lowest level in more than 30 years. This decrease was due to significant declines in Quebec (-15 %) and Alberta (-11 %), more specifically Montreal (-18 %) and Calgary (-23 %). »⁵

The generation of young people have been in since CPE 1997, to 5 years, born in 1992 we had 12 years 2004.

And what's happening with the crime rate since 2004?

Drop of 20% IGC Quebec, like other provinces.⁶ It is therefore wrong to claim that the CPE would induce criminal behavior.

And what about young people in the IGC 12 to 17 years?

Same thing! There was a decrease in 20% Index TGI since 2003.⁷

And Quebec always the lowest IGC Canadian youth.⁸

This year alone 2013 the crime rate declined 11% compared with 2012.⁹

« During the last decade, the rate of crimes against property by 100 000 people fell 40 % »¹⁰

And the latest data only confirm the trend :

« The crime rate decreased 3 % Canada and 10 % in Quebec "¹¹ in 2014.

The cause of the continued decline in the crime rate is not necessarily known and pre-existed the creation of CPE.

But one thing is certain, since the creation of the CPE, the crime rate has not increased.

He lowered, and violent crime even more downcast in Quebec and Canada!

Yves Marineau

Sociologist

Sources :

-Statistics Canada : http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2013001/article/11854-fra.htm#a7

-Statistics Canada : http://www.securitepublique.gouv.qc.ca/police/publications-et-statistiques/statistiques-criminalite/2013/faits-saillants.html

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